Una mirada crítica del actual debate sobre estancamiento secular
Resumen
La escena actual de exiguo y frágil crecimiento de las economías centrales provocó la reaparición de la hipótesis de estancamiento secular. Un segmento de las explicaciones actuales atribuye esta paralización del nivel de acumulación a la gestación de un exceso de ahorro agregado, pero rehúsa detenerse en la función cumplida por las ganancias retenidas en el seno de las empresas. En este trabajo se ofrece una estimación a nivel rama de actividad de ese exceso de ahorro empresario, para 15 países de la OCDE, y se documenta su tendencia ascendente desde 1980. Asimismo, se discuten indicios que permiten postular que ciertas transformaciones de largo plazo experimentadas por la acumulación de capital a nivel mundial (caída de costos laborales, intensificación del comercio y la inversión internacionales, agudización de la competencia, sobrecapacidad, etc) contribuyeron al estancamiento.
Citas
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Barba, A., Pivetti, M. (2012). Distribution and accumulation in post-1980 advanced capitalism. Review of Keynesian Economics, Inaugural Issue, Autumn, 126–142.
Blanchard, O. (1997). The Medium Run. Brookings Paper on Economic Activity. Nº2, 89-158.
Blonigen, G., Wilson, W. (2010) Foreign subsidation and excess capacity. Journal of International Economics, Vol. 80, 200-211.
Brenner, R. (2002). The boom and the bubble. The US in the world economy, New York: Verso.
Brown, G., Kapadia, N. (2007). Firm-specific risk and equity market development. Journal of Financial Economics, 84, 358-388.
Caballero, R., Farhi, E. (2014). On the role of safe assets shortages in Secular Stagnation. En en Teulings,C, Baldwin, R., Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures, Londres: CEPR Press.
Caballero, R., Hammour, M. (1998). Jobless Growth: Appropriability, Factor Substitution, and Unemployment. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 48 (1), 51-94.
Comin, D., Phillipon, T. (2006). The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences. En Gertler, M., Roggof, K., “NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20”, Cambridge: MIT Press.
Davis, S., Haltiwanger, J., Jarmin, R., Miranda, J. (2007), "Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms." En Acemoglu, D., Rogoff, K. y Woodford, M., NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006. Cambridge: MIT Press.
Decker, R., Haltiwanger, J., Jarmin, R., Miranda, J. (2014), The secular decline in business dynamics in the U.S. Recuperado el 15 de Enero de 2015 de http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/workshops/appliedecon/pdf/Haltiwangersecular.pdf
Fondo Monetario Internacional (2006). Awash with Cash: Why are Corporate Savings So High?.En FMI, World Economic Outlook, Abril, p.135-159. Washington D.C.: Fondo Monetario Internacional.
FMI (2007). The globalization of labour. En FMI, World Economic Outlook, Abril, p. 161-192. Washington D.C.: Fondo Monetario Internacional.
FMI (2014). Prospective on Global Real Interest Rates. En FMI, World Economic Outlook, Abril, p. 81-112. Washington D.C.: Fondo Monetario Internacional.
Giovannoni, O. (2014). "What Do We Know About the Labor Share and the Profit Share? Part II: Empirical Studies," Economics Working Paper Archive WP 804, Levy Economics Institute.
Glyn, A. (2006) Capitalism Unleashed: Finance, Globalization and Welfare, Oxford-New York: Oxford University Press.
Gordon, R. (2014). The demise of U.S. Economic Growth: Restatement, Rebuttal and Reflections. NBER Working Paper Series, Nº19865. Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Hansen, A. (1938). Full Recovery or Stagnation?. Nueva York: W. W. Norton, Incorporated.
Harvey, D. (2005). A brief history of neoliberalism, Oxford : Oxford University Press.
Harvey, D. (2006). The limits to capital. Londres-Nueva York: Verso.
Hobson, J. A. (1902). Imperialism. A Study. Londres: Allen and Unwin.
Humphrey , J., Memedovic, O., (2003). The Global Automotive Industry Value Chain: What Prospects for Upgrading by Developing Countries. Sectoral Studies Series. Viena: United Nation Industrial Development Organization.
Institute of International Finance (Diciembre de 2014), Business Investment in the G7: Coming out of the Doldrums?. Recuperado el 15 de Enero de 2015 de https://www.iif.com/publication/research-note/business-investment-g7-coming-out-doldrums
Irvine, P., Pontiff, J. (2008). Idiosyncratic return volatility, cash flows, and product market competition. Review of Financial Studies, 22, 1149–1177.
Johnson, L. (1987). Excess Capacity in international telecommunication. Telecommunications Policy, Septiembre.
Koo, R. (2014). Balance sheet recession is the reason for secular stagnation. En Teulings,C, Baldwin, R., Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures, Londres: CEPR Press.
Krugman, P. (2014). Four observations on secular stagnation. En Teulings,C, Baldwin, R., Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures, Londres: CEPR Press.
Lipietz, A. (1987). Mirages and Miracles. The crisis of global fordism. Londres: Verso.
Lucarelli, B. (2015). The crisis of over-acumulation in Japan, Journal of Contemporary Asia, 45 (2), 311-325.
Maddison, A., (2001). The World Economy. A Millenian Perspective. Development Center Studies. París: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
Malthus, R. (1998[1798]). Essay on the Principle of Population. Londres: Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.
Milberg, W. (2008). Shifting sources and uses of profits: sustaining US financialization with global value chains. Economy and Society, 37 (3), 420-451.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (2007). Corporate Savings and Investment: Recent Trends and Prospects, OECD Economic Outlook, Vol. 82, 1-23.
Podkaminer, L. (2015). The euro area’s secular stagnation and what can be done about it. A post-Keynesian perspective, Real-World Economic Review, Nº70, 2-16.
Schumpeter, J. (1939). Business Cicles: A Theoretical, Historical and Statisticalh Analysis of the Capitalist Process. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Shaikh, A. (2006 [1991]). Valor, Acumulación y Crisis. Ensayos de Economía Política, Buenos Aires: Ediciones RyR.
Sismondi, J. C. (1971[1819]). Nouveau Principes d'Économie Politique. Paris: Calman-Levy.
Sterling, C. (2006). Shaping American Telecommunications: A History of Technology, Policy, and Economics. Nueva Jersey-Londres: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
Summers, L (2013). “IMF Economic Forum: Policy Responses to Crises”, discurso en el IMF Fourteenth Annual Research Conference, Washington, DC, Noviembre, 9. Recuperado el 15 de Enero de 2015 de http://larrysummers.com/imf-fourteenth-annual-research-conference-in-honor-of-stanley-fischer/
Summers, L (2014a). “US Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis and the Zero Lower Bound”, Business Economics, 49(2), 65-73.
Summers, L. (2014b). Reflections on the new Secular Stagnation Hypothesis. En Teulings,C, Baldwin, R., Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures, Londres: CEPR Press.
Sweezy, P., Magdoff, F. (1987). Stagnation and Financial Explosion, Nueva York: Monthly Review Press.
Wei, S., Zhang, C., (2006). Why Did Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? The Journal of Business, 79 (1) 1, 259-292.
Barba, A., Pivetti, M. (2012). Distribution and accumulation in post-1980 advanced capitalism. Review of Keynesian Economics, Inaugural Issue, Autumn, 126–142.
Blanchard, O. (1997). The Medium Run. Brookings Paper on Economic Activity. Nº2, 89-158.
Blonigen, G., Wilson, W. (2010) Foreign subsidation and excess capacity. Journal of International Economics, Vol. 80, 200-211.
Brenner, R. (2002). The boom and the bubble. The US in the world economy, New York: Verso.
Brown, G., Kapadia, N. (2007). Firm-specific risk and equity market development. Journal of Financial Economics, 84, 358-388.
Caballero, R., Farhi, E. (2014). On the role of safe assets shortages in Secular Stagnation. En en Teulings,C, Baldwin, R., Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures, Londres: CEPR Press.
Caballero, R., Hammour, M. (1998). Jobless Growth: Appropriability, Factor Substitution, and Unemployment. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 48 (1), 51-94.
Comin, D., Phillipon, T. (2006). The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences. En Gertler, M., Roggof, K., “NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20”, Cambridge: MIT Press.
Davis, S., Haltiwanger, J., Jarmin, R., Miranda, J. (2007), "Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms." En Acemoglu, D., Rogoff, K. y Woodford, M., NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006. Cambridge: MIT Press.
Decker, R., Haltiwanger, J., Jarmin, R., Miranda, J. (2014), The secular decline in business dynamics in the U.S. Recuperado el 15 de Enero de 2015 de http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/workshops/appliedecon/pdf/Haltiwangersecular.pdf
Fondo Monetario Internacional (2006). Awash with Cash: Why are Corporate Savings So High?.En FMI, World Economic Outlook, Abril, p.135-159. Washington D.C.: Fondo Monetario Internacional.
FMI (2007). The globalization of labour. En FMI, World Economic Outlook, Abril, p. 161-192. Washington D.C.: Fondo Monetario Internacional.
FMI (2014). Prospective on Global Real Interest Rates. En FMI, World Economic Outlook, Abril, p. 81-112. Washington D.C.: Fondo Monetario Internacional.
Giovannoni, O. (2014). "What Do We Know About the Labor Share and the Profit Share? Part II: Empirical Studies," Economics Working Paper Archive WP 804, Levy Economics Institute.
Glyn, A. (2006) Capitalism Unleashed: Finance, Globalization and Welfare, Oxford-New York: Oxford University Press.
Gordon, R. (2014). The demise of U.S. Economic Growth: Restatement, Rebuttal and Reflections. NBER Working Paper Series, Nº19865. Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Hansen, A. (1938). Full Recovery or Stagnation?. Nueva York: W. W. Norton, Incorporated.
Harvey, D. (2005). A brief history of neoliberalism, Oxford : Oxford University Press.
Harvey, D. (2006). The limits to capital. Londres-Nueva York: Verso.
Hobson, J. A. (1902). Imperialism. A Study. Londres: Allen and Unwin.
Humphrey , J., Memedovic, O., (2003). The Global Automotive Industry Value Chain: What Prospects for Upgrading by Developing Countries. Sectoral Studies Series. Viena: United Nation Industrial Development Organization.
Institute of International Finance (Diciembre de 2014), Business Investment in the G7: Coming out of the Doldrums?. Recuperado el 15 de Enero de 2015 de https://www.iif.com/publication/research-note/business-investment-g7-coming-out-doldrums
Irvine, P., Pontiff, J. (2008). Idiosyncratic return volatility, cash flows, and product market competition. Review of Financial Studies, 22, 1149–1177.
Johnson, L. (1987). Excess Capacity in international telecommunication. Telecommunications Policy, Septiembre.
Koo, R. (2014). Balance sheet recession is the reason for secular stagnation. En Teulings,C, Baldwin, R., Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures, Londres: CEPR Press.
Krugman, P. (2014). Four observations on secular stagnation. En Teulings,C, Baldwin, R., Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures, Londres: CEPR Press.
Lipietz, A. (1987). Mirages and Miracles. The crisis of global fordism. Londres: Verso.
Lucarelli, B. (2015). The crisis of over-acumulation in Japan, Journal of Contemporary Asia, 45 (2), 311-325.
Maddison, A., (2001). The World Economy. A Millenian Perspective. Development Center Studies. París: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
Malthus, R. (1998[1798]). Essay on the Principle of Population. Londres: Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.
Milberg, W. (2008). Shifting sources and uses of profits: sustaining US financialization with global value chains. Economy and Society, 37 (3), 420-451.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (2007). Corporate Savings and Investment: Recent Trends and Prospects, OECD Economic Outlook, Vol. 82, 1-23.
Podkaminer, L. (2015). The euro area’s secular stagnation and what can be done about it. A post-Keynesian perspective, Real-World Economic Review, Nº70, 2-16.
Schumpeter, J. (1939). Business Cicles: A Theoretical, Historical and Statisticalh Analysis of the Capitalist Process. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Shaikh, A. (2006 [1991]). Valor, Acumulación y Crisis. Ensayos de Economía Política, Buenos Aires: Ediciones RyR.
Sismondi, J. C. (1971[1819]). Nouveau Principes d'Économie Politique. Paris: Calman-Levy.
Sterling, C. (2006). Shaping American Telecommunications: A History of Technology, Policy, and Economics. Nueva Jersey-Londres: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
Summers, L (2013). “IMF Economic Forum: Policy Responses to Crises”, discurso en el IMF Fourteenth Annual Research Conference, Washington, DC, Noviembre, 9. Recuperado el 15 de Enero de 2015 de http://larrysummers.com/imf-fourteenth-annual-research-conference-in-honor-of-stanley-fischer/
Summers, L (2014a). “US Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis and the Zero Lower Bound”, Business Economics, 49(2), 65-73.
Summers, L. (2014b). Reflections on the new Secular Stagnation Hypothesis. En Teulings,C, Baldwin, R., Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures, Londres: CEPR Press.
Sweezy, P., Magdoff, F. (1987). Stagnation and Financial Explosion, Nueva York: Monthly Review Press.
Wei, S., Zhang, C., (2006). Why Did Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? The Journal of Business, 79 (1) 1, 259-292.
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Publicado
2015-05-20
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Pérez Artica, R. (2015). Una mirada crítica del actual debate sobre estancamiento secular. Cuadernos De Economía Crítica, 1(2), 15-48. Recuperado a partir de https://www.oldojs.sociedadeconomiacritica.org/index.php/cec/article/view/11
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